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Dating business cycles using many indicators

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We illustrate the promise of this approach by reconstructing the inferences that would have been generated if parameters had to be estimated and inferences drawn based on data as they were originally released at each historical date. The article provides a review of the process and indicators the NBER Committee uses to evaluate potential business cycle turning points. A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, that lasts more than a few months and is visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail sales. How do NBER recessions differ from the common description of a recession as, "a period when real gross domestic product declines for two consecutive quarters? Economic Fluctuations and Growth This paper discusses formal quantitative algorithms that can be used to identify business cycle turning points. How does the NBER determine business cycle turning points? We also provide the intuition and detailed description of these algorithms for both simple parametric univariate inference as well as latent-variable multiple-indicator inference using a state-space Markov-switching approach. Note that the series typically climbs during expansion periods between the trough and the peak of the business cycle and falls during recessions the shaded areas between the peak and the trough. During expansions, the economy, measured by indicators like jobs, production, and sales, is growing--in real terms, after excluding the effects of inflation. The NBER website http: The chart plots the behavior of the Composite Coincident Indicator Index from to During this period, the average business cycle lasted about five years; the average expansion had a duration of a little over four years, while the average recession lasted just under one year. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Recessions are periods when the economy is shrinking or contracting. The monthly data allow the NBER to be more precise in setting business cycle turning points; the monthly data also typically are not subject to the same magnitude of revisions as are the quarterly GDP data. The NBER a private nonprofit nonpartisan research organization, determines the official dates for business cycles. We also discuss some of the potential complicating factors one might want to consider for such an analysis, such as the reduced volatility of output growth rates since and the changing cyclical behavior of employment.

Dating business cycles using many indicators


Although such refinements can improve the inference, we nevertheless find that the simpler specifications perform very well historically and may be more robust for recognizing future business cycle turning points of unknown character. Economic Fluctuations and Growth This paper discusses formal quantitative algorithms that can be used to identify business cycle turning points. We illustrate the promise of this approach by reconstructing the inferences that would have been generated if parameters had to be estimated and inferences drawn based on data as they were originally released at each historical date. A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, that lasts more than a few months and is visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail sales. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Data on these official business cycle turning points and dates are available from the NBER website at http: An intuitive, graphical derivation of these algorithms is presented along with a description of how they can be implemented making very minimal distributional assumptions. May Business cycles are the "ups and downs" in economic activity, defined in terms of periods of expansion or recession. Both indexes perform quite well in simulation with real-time data bases. The chart shows the periods of expansion and recession for the Composite Coincident Indicator Index from to During expansions, the economy, measured by indicators like jobs, production, and sales, is growing--in real terms, after excluding the effects of inflation. We also provide the intuition and detailed description of these algorithms for both simple parametric univariate inference as well as latent-variable multiple-indicator inference using a state-space Markov-switching approach. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. The chart plots the behavior of the Composite Coincident Indicator Index from to This index, published by The Conference Board http: We also discuss some of the potential complicating factors one might want to consider for such an analysis, such as the reduced volatility of output growth rates since and the changing cyclical behavior of employment. During this period, the average business cycle lasted about five years; the average expansion had a duration of a little over four years, while the average recession lasted just under one year. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades. How does the NBER determine business cycle turning points? Waiting until one extra quarter of GDP growth is reported or one extra month of the monthly indicators released before making a call of a business cycle turning point helps reduce the risk of misclassification. The Business Cycle Dating Committee also examines the data to evaluate the depth of a downturn to determine whether it is sufficient to qualify as a recession. The NBER's researchers have selected turning points for over 30 business cycles, beginning in the mids. Note that the series typically climbs during expansion periods between the trough and the peak of the business cycle and falls during recessions the shaded areas between the peak and the trough. The article provides a review of the process and indicators the NBER Committee uses to evaluate potential business cycle turning points. How do NBER recessions differ from the common description of a recession as, "a period when real gross domestic product declines for two consecutive quarters? The monthly data allow the NBER to be more precise in setting business cycle turning points; the monthly data also typically are not subject to the same magnitude of revisions as are the quarterly GDP data.

Dating business cycles using many indicators


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